Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-11-17 00:00:00+00:00 0.019973 0.022652 0.025579 0.029018 0.032955 0.037325 0.042552
2024-11-24 00:00:00+00:00 0.015384 0.018918 0.023125 0.028515 0.035264 0.043463 0.054228
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 0.012958 0.016811 0.021663 0.028254 0.037021 0.048351 0.064212
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 0.011257 0.015252 0.020519 0.028021 0.038513 0.052781 0.073855
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 0.010276 0.014458 0.020199 0.028725 0.041188 0.058924 0.086408
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 0.009193 0.013366 0.019299 0.028439 0.042328 0.062903 0.096179
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 0.008635 0.012946 0.019280 0.029380 0.045300 0.069802 0.111077
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 0.007688 0.011837 0.018110 0.028416 0.045196 0.071899 0.118534
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 0.006995 0.011044 0.017329 0.027955 0.045789 0.075092 0.128058
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 0.006268 0.010124 0.016256 0.026895 0.045257 0.076322 0.134287
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 0.006039 0.009985 0.016422 0.027893 0.048276 0.083833 0.152431
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.005819 0.009837 0.016551 0.028827 0.051255 0.091547 0.171819
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.005564 0.009616 0.016551 0.029559 0.053999 0.099222 0.192294
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.005151 0.009084 0.015963 0.029176 0.054648 0.103090 0.205839
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.004797 0.008625 0.015464 0.028898 0.055449 0.107296 0.220539
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.004484 0.008213 0.015011 0.028661 0.056290 0.111644 0.236042
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.004325 0.008075 0.015053 0.029382 0.059112 0.120277 0.261861
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.004054 0.007699 0.014609 0.029089 0.059812 0.124559 0.278528
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.003952 0.007642 0.014776 0.030052 0.063245 0.135020 0.310703
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 0.003642 0.007149 0.014041 0.029065 0.062367 0.135943 0.320455
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 0.003413 0.006801 0.013569 0.028593 0.062569 0.139286 0.336474
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 0.003141 0.006346 0.012844 0.027507 0.061280 0.139072 0.343591
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 0.003091 0.006346 0.013066 0.028529 0.064936 0.150823 0.382852